Measuring Trump's Strength in a Swing State

Measuring Trump's Strength in a Swing State
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While the political world is understandably focusing its attention on the largest Super Tuesday prizes, it’s worth examining how the outcomes of the first four nominating contests will impact today’s primary in Virginia, and what it says about Donald Trump’s strength.  

With the growth of the D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia and the declining share of white voters, Virginia has gradually become one of the key swing states in presidential elections. So just who do Republican voters in Virginia prefer to carry the flag of their party? Trump, of course. 

As with many of the states in which our Trendency Research platform is currently surveying, the businessman maintains a strong core of support — and has for months. In Virginia, he hasn’t increased his lead over the competitors in the last couple of months, but no one else has risen to challenge his place. Trump takes 54 percent of the vote at the 90 Threshold (strongest supporters), while only two other candidates even make the double digits.  It’s a phenomenon that’s representative of the overall GOP presidential primary. 

In our Trendency Research surveys, we don’t look for binary responses to questions. Instead, we allow users to allocate their choice of candidate on a sliding scale. They can apportion all their support to one person, or divide it among several if they haven’t made up their mind. Voters who login to take our surveys online do so on a regular basis over the course of several months and the site registers the changes — or lack thereof — in their opinions on each visit. 

In the analysis, Trendency algorithms utilize Threshold Analysis to separate strong supporters from weak. Voters at higher Thresholds are more likely to cast a ballot for that candidate and less likely to switch their allegiance.

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